Top shirt Index Topbestshirt on 2020/08/05

Democrats declined to impeach him after Mueller found he illegally coordinated with a hostile government to influence our election and committed at least ten acts of obstruction of justice to cover it up. Since coronavirus, we have 160,000 dead, 40 million out of work, and are borrowing trillions more from China to prop up our economy. Half the country is in lockdown and the other half is rioting. We know we can’t survive four more years like this.

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Biden on the other hand represents change, and when things are this bad, almost any change is good. We don’t know exactly what his Presidency will look like, but it’s expected to be somewhat of a return to Obama policies, where the Dow tripled, unemployment dropped by two-thirds, the deficit was cut in half, and we successfully navigated two epidemics.

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Additionally, with deflation, the value of debt obligations increase relative to the value of other forms of wealth, (besides money and purely financial assets). Deflation increases debt burdens. A person or entity with less debt will see their buying power reduced less than a person or entity with more debt.

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A person with more purely financial assets and with less debt is going to see their relative wealth, and relative spending power go up more as compared to a person with more debt and less purely financial assets. I think it fair to say that this describes the difference between wealthy people who are more likely to be net lenders as compared to poorer people who are more likely to be net borrowers.

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That is, they spend a smaller fraction of their income on the type of spending that increases employment and production the most. They also tend to purchase more purely financial assets.

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 Poorer people tend to spend more on that direct spending, meaning their spending, on a dollar for dollar basis, stimulates employment and production more. From this factor, it is reasonable to assume that deflation will have an adverse effect on the level of employment and production.

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The only way we could avoid some of this would be if we could somehow reduce the value of purely financial assets to match the reduction in the value of everything else. This would mean the balance in everyone’s bank account would decrease at the rate of deflation, and the total principal owed on loans would also decrease at the rate of deflation.

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Actually, there is a way this is handled. It is called interest. What we would be talking about here is you would need positive interest rates when we have inflation, which we have of course. But we would also need negative interest rates if deflation got bad enough, which is problematic.

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Let us say the bank gives a one year, one payment, loan of 1000 dollars at a negative 5 percent interest rate. This means the bank gives the borrower 1000 dollars today and in one year gets paid back 950 dollars. Now ask yourself, why would the bank do that?
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And that 1000 dollars, due to deflation, is worth more in terms of purchasing power, than it was a year previous. Banks would have no incentive to lend at negative interest rates. If the only way people would be able to afford to borrow is if nominal interest rates are negative, lending will not happen because the bank could just hold the cash.

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Further, if the banks were charging negative interest rates, or even extremely low positive interest rates on loans, in order to make any profit, they would have to pay negative interest rates to their depositors. If that happened then people would not deposit money in the bank. Why would someone put money in the bank if the bank kept reducing their balance without that person withdrawing any money?

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